Tord Snäll, abstract

Species reports by the public as a basis for species projection in forest scenario analysis

Tord Snäll
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden

Currently, the Swedish Forest Agency is conducting yet another Forest Scenario Analysis (FSA). FSA aims to describe the consequences of scenarios of future forestry policy. Effects on e.g. wood production have long been studied. However, national FSA should also compare viabilities of species among the scenarios. An appropriate approach to compare species viability among scenarios is population viability analysis. Such an analysis includes a model for population dynamics of the focal species. However, developing a population model is usually a long or costly process. I will show how applying simple population models based on readily available data may affect conclusions about future species viabilities among forestry scenarios. Two types of population models will be applied, [1] models based on data collected using a systematic sampling design, and [2] models based on species observation data reported by the public to open-access websites, so called Citizen Science Data (CSD). The key question that will be answered is whether projections of future species viabilities differ among forestry scenarios depending on the type of model applied - do the two model-types ([1] or [2]) give different messages about future species viability? I will use the scenarios formulated for the ongoing FSA: business-as-usual, increased conservation, increased wood productivity, much increased temperature (RCP 8.5), and combinations of these.